Neck Deep In Hoops

I'm coming off a day that began with college basketball (with a little work interrupting the first half of the first game), and ended with college basketball. The games yesterday were spectacular, including the ending of the Butler-Pitt game that probably set a record for being ridiculous. BUTLER'S foul with about 2 seconds left was crazy and ill-advised, then PITT fouling on the rebound with a tie game 90 feet away from the basket was even more insane. The thing is, the refs got both of these calls exactly right. The calls were not at all controversial, and the players/coaches have nobody to blame but themselves. I think the highlight of the Butler-Pitt game was on the Butler foul, my 4 year old nephew came walking in the front door, and me (being half in the bag) screamed out "NO FUCKING WAY!". And my nephew laughed.

In other news, great, gutty win by UW yesterday. Even though Jordan Taylor lost his scholarship money in Vegas by accidentally blocking Pullen's shot, he tried his hardest to lose the game by taking a series of awful shots, and making none of them. One question I had was how was Leuer allowed to play with his whole head blood stained? Shouldn't they have made him take a shower or something? Did they douse his head with chemicals? There was clearly crusted blood mixed with sweat on his head. Found it interesting is all.

Butler is not going to fear the Badgers at all, but Bucky should beat Butler, which will set up a game against either BYU or Florida for the final four. BYU scares me, because if Taylor can't hold Pullen under 30, Jimmer might get 50. Florida is much more athletic, but they don't scare me much. I guess the Badgers might as well continue this crazy run of Wisconsin sports success with a Final Four run.

Finally, as I settle in for another day of games, I wanted to point out that I don't like the new schedule, especially today. It used to be that on Sunday they would stack up all the games to end by 6 so that old people could watch 6o Minutes before they die. It was nice because I could finish watching hoops early, and think about something else for a few hours. I love basketball, but sometimes one's brain needs to do something else for a few minutes. Now, because of the four networks, they are staggering the games until 11 p.m. again. I will watch, but I may not sleep now, because I will be thinking about hoops.

Oh, one last thing. Creighton! Davidson! Its the second (?) round of the CBI or Collegeinsiders.com (I'm not sure which)! Live on HDNet!!! Monday at 6 p.m. Set your DVRs so I don't have to.

WAIT! A bonus one last thing. In the Division 1 High School championship last night in Wisconsin, a kid pulled a Chris Webber and called a timeout up by 2 with about 2 seconds left. Kid on the other team drilled two FTs, and the timeout team eventually lost in Triple OT. It was super entertaining. I felt bad for the kid.

Bear's Picks!

I shamelessly stole Jon's format for this post because, quite frankly, I don't have time to do this haha. This bracket was submitted to yahoo this morning, before the deadline somehow! I took about 10 minutes of un-researched time to make all the picks. I tried to follow a couple rules, bomber teams and good guard play trumped good front court play when I felt there was a close match up or the talent level was comparable. Also, I gave the big ten and the big east penalties, just cuz they always fuck me every year and quite frankly I'm pushing them down on my rankings because of it. And as always, I hate the SEC, so they get pushed down as well. As a side note, with 2 games completed I'm already 2-0, so obviously I'm awesome at this game.

The picks:

East Region
(1) Ohio State over 16 seed
(9) Villanova over (8) George Mason
(5) West Virginia over (12) Clemson
(4) Kentucky over (13) Princeton
(11) Marquette over (6) Xavier
(3) Syracuse over (14) Indiana State
(7) Washington over (10) Georgia
(2) North Carolina over(15) Long Island

(1) Ohio State over (9) Villanova
(4) Kentucky over (5) West Virginia
(3)Syracuse over (11) Marquette
(2) North Carolina over (7) Washington

(1) Ohio State over (4) Kentucky
(2) North Carolina over (3)Syracuse

(1) Ohio State over (2) North Carolina

Southwest Region

(1) Kansas over (16) Boston U
(9) Illinois over (8) UNLV
(12) Richmond over (5) Vanderbilt
(4) Louisville over (13) Morehead St.
(6) Georgetown over (11) VCU
(3) Purdue over (14) St. Peter's
(10) Florida State over (7) Texas A&M
(2) Notre Dame over (15) Akron

(1) Kansas over (9) Illinois
(12) Richmond over (4) Louisville
(3) Purdue over (6) Georgetown
(2) Notre Dame over (10) Florida State

(1) Kansas over (12) Richmond
(3) Purdue over (2) Notre Dame

(1) Kansas over (3) Purdue

West Region

(1) Duke over (16) Hampton
(8) Michigan over (9) Tennessee
(5) Arizona over (12) Memphis
(4) Texas over (13) Oakland
(6) Cincinnati over (11) Missouri
(3) Connecticut over (14) Bucknell
(7) Temple over (10) Penn State
(2) San Diego State over (15) Northern Colorado

(1) Duke over (8) Michigan
(4) Texas over (5) Arizona
(3) Connecticut over (6) Cincinnati
(2) San Diego State over (7) Temple

(4) Texas over (1) Duke
(2) San Diego State over (3) Connecticut

(4) Texas over (2) San Diego State

Southeast Region
(1) Pittsburgh over (16) UNC-Ashville
(8) Butler over (9) Old Dominion
(5) Kansas State over (12) Utah State
(4) Wisconsin over (13) Belmont
(11) Gonzaga over (6) St. John's
(3) BYU over (14) Wofford
(10) Michigan State over (7) UCLA
(2) Florida over (15) UCSB

(1) Pittsburgh over (8) Butler
(5) Kansas State over (4) Wisconsin
(3) BYU over (11) Gonzaga
(2) Florida over (10) Michigan State

(5) Kansas State over (1) Pittsburgh
(3) BYU over (2) Florida

(5) Kansas State over (3) BYU

Final Four

(1) Ohio State over (4) Texas
(1) Kansas over (5) Kansas State

Finals

(1) Kansas over (1) Ohio State


You can call this thing a chalk bracket if you must, I have a couple upsets, nothing crazy, I went against the 5-12 rule this year, well I picked one, but that more goes back to my rule that the SEC fucking sucks, so it seemed like a ripe upset pick. My two "borderline" picks are Texas and K State going to the Final Four, both teams are pretty fucking good on paper, it's just a matter of playing well in the tourney, so we shall see. The Marquette pick is a pure homer upset pick. Fuck the Badgers, they aren't a good tourney team, especially with the region they drew. Purdue getting to the Elite Eight is also a little risky, but the bottom half of that region is littered with shitty upset picks and Big Ten and Big East teams all over the place, so who the hell knows what team is getting out of there. I felt like Ohio State was a good enough team to get over the whole Big Ten down ranking and I ended up with them paired off against Kansas. I figured Kansas to be the less common championship pick so why the hell not.

Keep in mind my beginning disclaimer, all of this logic spewed out of my brain over the course of 10 minutes this morning, so it should be iron clad.

Embarassing Myself

Last week I gave you a bunch of tips to help fill out your brackets. I used my methods to fill out my bracket, and am here to post my picks to either embarrass myself or provide a shred of evidence that my methods may have some truth to them. Granted, the sample size is ridiculously small (I did try to dig up my brackets from the last 10 years, but sadly ESPN.com and yahoo.com don't keep them in perpetuity).

I strongly believe that picking teams based on guard play, coaching aptitude, free throw percentage and total defense will help you win your bracket. Juice disagrees wholeheartedly. In the past week we've had a dog make picks, Juice himself make his picks with limited research, and now I'll post mine. Unfortunately I don't have time for analysis today, but trust that I did this using the fundamentals of 1) Defensive aptitude; 2) Free-throw percentage; 3) Coaching aptitude; and 4) Relative strength of guard-play/3 point strength.

The picks:

East Region

(1) Ohio State over 16 seed
(8) George Mason over (9) Villanova
(12) Clemson over (5) West Virginia
(4) Kentucky over (13) Princeton
(6) Xavier over (11) Cincinatti
(3) Syracuse over (14) Indiana State
(7) Washington over (10) Georgia
(2) North Carolina over(15) Long Island

(1) Ohio State over (8) George Mason
(4) Kentucky over (12) Clemson
(6) Xavier over (3)Syracuse
(2) North Carolina over (7) Washington

(1) Ohio State over (4) Kentucky
(2) North Carolina over (6) Xavier

(1) Ohio State over (2) North Carolina

Southwest Region

(1) Kansas over (16) Boston U
(8) UNLV over (9) Illinois
(12) Richmond over (5) Vanderbilt
(4) Louisville over (13) Morehead St.
(6) Georgetown over (11) VCU
(3) Purdue over (14) St. Peter's
(10) Florida State over (7) Texas A&M
(2) Notre Dame over (15) Akron

(1) Kansas over (8) UNLV
(12) Richmond over (4) Louisville
(3) Purdue over (11) USC
(2) Notre Dame over (10) Florida State

(1) Kansas over (12) Richmond
(3) Purdue over (2) Notre Dame

(1) Kansas over (3) Purdue

West Region

(1) Duke over (16) Hampton
(8) Michigan over (9) Tennessee
(5) Arizona over (12) Memphis
(4) Texas over (13) Oakland
(11) Missouri over (6) Cincinnati
(3) Connecticut over (14) Bucknell
(7) Temple over (10) Penn State
(2) San Diego State over (15) Northern Colorado

(1) Duke over (8) Michigan
(4) Texas over (5) Arizona
(11) Missouri over (3) Connecticut
(2) San Diego State over (7) Temple

(1) Duke over (4) Texas
(2) San Diego State over (11) Missouri

(1) Duke over (2) San Diego State

Southeast Region
(1) Pittsburgh over (16) UNC-Ashville
(9) Old Dominion over (8) Butler
(5) Kansas State over (12) Utah State
(4) Wisconsin over (13) Belmont
(11) Gonzaga over (6) St. John's
(3) BYU over (14) Wofford
(10) Michigan State over (7) UCLA
(15) UCSB over (2) Florida

The model didn't spit that one out, but I'm getting good value so I picked it. Free-throws, defense, and guard play actually go to UCSB, coaching goes to Donovan (although only because of national championships). This game should be a lot closer than people think.

(1) Pittsburgh over (9) Old Dominion
(4) Wisconsin over (5) Kansas State
(11) Gonzaga over (3) BYU
(10) Michigan State over (15) UCSB

(1) Pittsburgh over (4) Wisconsin
(10) Michigan State over (11) Gonzaga

(10) Michigan State over (1) Pittsburgh

Final Four

(1) Duke over (1) Ohio State
(1) Kansas over (10) Michigan State

Finals

(1) Duke over (1) Kansas

Juice's Bracket of Death

Alright, here is one after I did all of the statistical research I'm willing to do. This is my best effort if I had to do one bracket to save my life. I will likely enter multiple brackets in multiple pools. I will leave the explanation to Jon, my method is a secret.

FIRST FOUR:

UT-San Antonio over Alabama St.
UAB over Clemson
UNC-Ashville over UALR
VCU over USC

EAST
1 Ohio St over 16 UT-San Antonio
8 George Mason over 9 Villanova

5 West Virginia over 12 UAB
4 Kentucky over 13 Princeton

11 Marquette over 6 Xavier
3 Syracuse over 14 Indiana St.

7 Washington over 10 Georgia
2 North Carolina over 15 LIU

1 Ohio St over 8 George Mason
4 Kentucky over 5 West Virginia

3 Syracuse over 11 Marquette
7 Washington over 2 North Carolina

1 Ohio St over 4 Kentucky
7 Washington over 3 Syracuse

1 Ohio St over 7 Washington

WEST

1 Duke over 16 Hampton
9 Tenn over 8 Mich

5 Arizona over 12 Memphis
4 Texas over 13 Oakland

6 Cincy over 11 Mizzou
3 UConn over 14 Bucknell

7 Temple over 10 Penn St.
2 SDSU over 15 N. Colorado

1 Duke over 9 Tenn
4 Texas over 5 Arizona

3 Uconn over 6 Cincy
2 SDSU over 7 Temple

1 Duke over 4 Texas
2 SDSU over 3 Uconn

1 Duke over 2 SDSU

SOUTHWEST

1 Kansas over 16 BU
9 Illinois over 8 UNLV

5 Vandy over 12 Richmond
4 Louisville over 13 Morehead St.

6 Georgetown over 11 VCU
3 Purdue over 14 St. Peter's

10 Florida St. over 7 Texas A&M
2 Notre Dame over 15 Akron

1 Kansas over 9 Illinois
4 Louisville over 5 Vandy

3 Purdue over 6 Georgetown
2 Notre Dame over 10 Florida St.

1 Kansas over 5 Vandy
3 Purdue over 2 Notre Dame

1 Kansas over 3 Purdue

SOUTHEAST

1 Pitt over 16 UNCA
8 Butler over 9 ODU

12 Utah St over 5 KSU
13 Belmont over 4 UW

11 Gonzaga over 6 St. John's
3 BYU over 14 Wofford

10 Michigan St over 7 UCLA
2 Florida over 15 UCSB

1 Pitt over 8 Butler
13 Belmont over 12 USU

3 BYU over 11 Gonzaga
2 Florida over 10 Michigan St.

1 Pitt over 13 Belmont
3 BYU over 2 Florida

3 BYU over 1 Pitt

FINAL FOUR

1 Ohio St over 1 Duke
1 Kansas over 3 BYU

CHAMPIONSHIP

Ohio St. over Kansas

Archie's Bracket

So here goes nothing. I did no research for this one. In fact, I didn't even pick it. My neighbor has a beagle named Archie (not making that up). I quickly got together 68 placards with team logos on them, put a dollop of peanut butter on it and had him lick one of them. The theory is that this dog, who also did no research, but probably watched a couple of games, can do as good as I can (or Jon can) with research.

FIRST FOUR:

UT-San Antonio over Alabama St.
UAB over Clemson
UNC-Ashville over UALR
VCU over USC

EAST
1 Ohio St over 16 UT-San Antonio
9 Villanova over 8 George Mason

5 West Virginia over 12 UAB
4 Kentucky over 13 Princeton

11 Marquette over 6 Xavier
3 Syracuse over 14 Indiana St.

7 Washington over 10 Georgia
2 North Carolina over 15 LIU

1 Ohio St over 9 Villanova
4 Kentucky over 5 West Virginia

3 Syracuse over 11 Marquette
2 North Carolina over 7 Washington

1 Ohio St over 4 Kentucky
2 North Carolina over 3 Syracuse

1 Ohio St over 2 North Carolina

WEST

1 Duke over 16 Hampton
9 Tenn over 8 Mich

5 Arizona over 12 Memphis
4 Texas over 13 Oakland

11 Mizzou over 6 Cincy
3 UConn over 14 Bucknell

7 Temple over 10 Penn St.
2 SDSU over 15 N. Colorado

1 Duke over 9 Tenn
5 Arizona over 4 Texas

3 Uconn over 11 Mizzou
7 Temple over 2 SDSU

1 Duke over 5 Arizona
3 Uconn over 7 Temple

3 Uconn over 1 Duke

SOUTHWEST

1 Kansas over 16 BU
8 UNLV over 9 Illinois

5 Vandy over 12 Richmond
13 Morehead St. over 4 Louisville

6 Georgetown over 11 VCU
3 Purdue over 14 St. Peter's

10 Florida St. over 7 Texas A&M
2 Notre Dame over 15 Akron

1 Kansas over 8 UNLV
5 Vandy over 13 Morehead St.

3 Purdue over 6 Georgetown
2 Notre Dame over 10 Florida St.

1 Kansas over 5 Vandy
3 Purdue over 2 Notre Dame

3 Purdue over 1 Kansas

SOUTHEAST

1 Pitt over 16 UNCA
9 ODU over 8 Butler

12 Utah St over 5 KSU
4 UW over 13 Belmont

6 SJU over 11 Gonzaga
3 BYU over 14 Wofford

10 Michigan St over 7 UCLA
2 Florida over 15 UCSB

1 Pitt over 9 ODU
12 USU over 4 UW

6 SJU over 3 BYU
2 Florida over 10 Michigan St.

1 Pitt over 12 USU
6 SJU over 2 Florida

1 Pitt over 6 SJU

FINAL FOUR

1 Ohio St over 3 Uconn
1 Pitt over 3 Purdue

CHAMPIONSHIP

Pitt over Ohio St.

Early Tournament Post

Before I get to selections, I would just like to point out that ESPN is ANGRY that VCU and UAB got in over their beloved Virginia Tech and Colorado. Jay Bilas has used words like "ridiculous", "absurd", "ridiculous" to describe this fact. The "Bracketology" show has been on for 20 minutes and they are STILL bitching about it. I'm not saying they are totally wrong, but thier "Eye Test" bullshit is annoying to me? If you just used an "eye test", no team from a BCS conference would ever get an at large bid, because teams with BCS ties have millions and millions of dollars, and large conference ties to get the best players. I just don't understand the theory that ESPN has here. And they incorrectly analyze the reasons the committee pick teams. There is no "eye test". It is purely a numbers game. I'm just sayin'.

I decided I'm going to put two brackets out here. ONE: a gut reaction bracket. TWO: a thoroughly researched bracket. I am fucking PUMPED for Tuesday.

Greinke, Real World, Bennett Ball

A few quick, untimely rants and thoughts from your favorite aquitted double murderer.

GREINKE

There is nothing that pisses me off more than when a professional athlete gets injured doing something they don't get paid to do that prevents them from doing something they get paid MILLIONS to do. Especially when that player is on my team. Jeff Kent "slipping while washing his car"= funny. Zack Greinke breaking a rib while playing basketball = not funny.

I realize that these guys are all (well not JaMarcus Russell) hypercompetitive twenty-somethings, who are incredible athletes. They shouldn't be expected to sit and play vids all day long when they aren't working out. But perhaps you could take up something that you are a little less likely to break a rib in. Now, you are still going to get paid millions while the Crew runs Mark Rogers (or (Sports Bottle's) god forbid Manny Parra) out there for two or three of your starts.

REAL WORLD LAS VEGAS

The latest Real World season premiered last week, and I gotta be honest, other than the "I don't ride cars, I ride boys" quote from the commercials, I wasn't that excited. I felt like it was a little played out going to Vegas for the third time. And then I watched it. And it was AWESOME. Here are some highlights:

-Guy who (is not gay mind you) is worried that his roommates are going to find out that he was in some web show where he ran around naked with a bunch of other dudes who were also not gay, and based on the blurred out clip, there were showers involved. But yeah, he isn't gay at all.

-Guy who started experimenting with drugs in high school, one thing led to another, and yada, yada, yada, someone got shot and he spent three years in juvy.

-And a ridiculous and surprising amount of Sun Drop product placement. I was unaware that Sun Drop HAD an ad budget. I thought their entire budget was sponsoring the scoreboards at Shawano High School. I legitimately thought it was produced and bottled in Shawano, and it didn't exist outside of Wisconsin. But I guess I was wrong. Good on Sun Drop. On a side note, Sun Drop out of a glass bottle is like crack.

BENNETT BALL

That game on Friday was the worst basketball game I've ever seen. And I lived through Bennett Ball, which while it got us a Final Four appearance, also led to the worst basketball ever played. The offense consisted of playing really tough D, and then throwing it around for 34 seconds and hoping you made a 3. Games were routinely in the 40s for like 5 years. The sad thing about Friday is that is wasn't even GOOD Bennett Ball. The Badgers should have lost by 40 because they didn't play good D either. Terrible. This is exactly the kind of game that Bucky plays every five games or so, and loses. Here's my prediction: Bucky will get a 6 seed, take the first round game down to the wire and win, and then lose in round 2. Book it.

I will be back later tonight/early tomorrow with bracket stuff.

Really, Really, Ridiculously Early March Madness Preview

This will be a dual article covering NCAA tournament pool strategy combined with a recap of the craziest party week of my life. As always, if you aren't interested in my adventures, skip down to the sports related content!

ESPN The Weekend

Between last Thursday and yesterday I got the opportunity to ride in a NASCAR race car going 140mph, I met Greg Jennings and his family in my hotel elevator (he was staying on my floor), I got Charlie Sheen drunk with Herm Edwards, and I ate and drank the sort of food and booze that Bill Gates would serve at his wedding . . . all on ESPN's dime.

If that wasn't enough, on Friday night, a Ghananian boxer's cornermen somehow found out I was a soccer fan, so I told them I was a fan of Michael Essien's (he is Ghana's version of Michael Jordan), and forgave their country for knocking the U.S. out of the World Cup. They proceeded to allow me to carry the Ghanan flag to the ring, let me wave it through the fight (all the while chanting GHANA GHANA GHANA!!!!!), and gave me the title belt (yes, that's it above) to take pictures with when the fighter won.

ESPN also had a luxury suite for us at a Spring Training game (Mets/Braves) where SportsCenter anchor Linda Cohn was the guest (we sat in the suite and drank rather than watch the game, and didn't say much to Linda, although we did put our friend on the phone with her to show him how accessible the ESPN personalities were).

I can honestly say that this was, without a doubt, the craziest party experience of my entire life, and if you know me, I tend to have a lot of crazy adventures. I feel really grateful to ESPN for putting on such a lavish event (Steve and I consumed at least 100 alcoholic beverages each during the 4 days on the trip . . . no exaggeration).

The actual ESPN the Weekend events themselves were nothing to write home about, and I didn't get any Packer players autographs (the events were littered with autograph dealers so the players weren't generally signing), but I know I probably will never get to do anything as cool again, so the experience was really amazing, and well worth sharing. I have a newfound appreciation for ESPN as a company, they really know how to make memorable events for their guests.

March Madness Strategy and New Format Primer

Time to get you all thinking about filling out your brackets on Sunday. As you will see below, depending on your tournament bookie, contest promoter, or office pool manager, you may have 4 games to make selections for on Tuesday morning. Since I would hate to see you do anything to damage your chances to win your pool (unless you are playing against me for money), I looked into the format change this week, rather than waiting until Sunday.

For those that don't know, there are now technically 68 teams in the tournament. Teams ranked 64-68 by the selection committee (low mid-major conference champions or upset winners of conference tournaments) play each other (one game Tuesday, one Wednesday) to get us our final two 16 seeds. Additionally, the last four at-large teams (11 or 12 seeds depending on the breakdown of conference tournament "upsets") play each other (again, one game Tuesday, one Wednesday) to earn the last two at-large spots in the tournament.

The official rules of the ESPN.com tournament challenge and Yahoo! Sports bracket manager (the most popular tournament "contest" providers in the U.S.) do not count the 4 play-in games as part of their bracket challenge. Thus, you can take solice in the fact that you can still turn in (or modify) your bracket at 11:59 eastern time on Thursday morning.

While writing this article I realized that I've been "competing" in bracket challenge contests for 20 straight years now. My first was 1991, when I was 11 years old. I'll never forget watching UNLV blow its perfect 1990-1991 season to Bobby Hurley, Christian Laettner, and Mike Krzyzewski in the national semifinal. That loss literally cost me the shot at $30.00 (we collected that much with our lunch money) when the guy that randomly picked North Carolina to win it all caught me in points by winning his semifinal game.

Nevertheless, I vowed never to lose again in the bracket pool and have put in the time every year to be able to say I knew everything I could know to put myself in position to be successful in the bracket challenge. Suffice to say, I haven't won every year, but I've done pretty well.

I love the tournament, love helping people win their pool, and am always happy to field questions. Let's just say that my uncle teaching me about fantasy sports, NCAA tournament pools, and Texas Hold 'Em poker when I was in my pre-teen years provided me with both a skill and was the birth of an addiction.

The disclaimer to the advice I'm about to give is that everything in March is fluid. No sport is more influenced by psyche (or stress) than college basketball. These are still kids playing a game that millions of people are betting on. That is part of what makes these games so fun to watch.

As a thanks to my readers for sticking with this [still] hungover mess of an article, I'm going to give you four pieces of invaluable advice for making your picks. Although they aren't the "secret," (FYI there is a secret and I'm not going to give it to you because the "secret" has been my tournament pool advantage for 10 of the 20 years I've been doing this), and these tips are available if you are doing your homework or watch a lot of college basketball, the following is a condensed way to [almost certainly] perform well in your pool.

Keep in mind, even though you have the tips, you still need to figure out the information. I'll give you some of it next week when we have the field, but it takes a lot of time and effort to sift through the data . . . you also need to know where to look (which shouldn't be that hard in the age of the internet).

The tips (not necessarily in order of importance):

1) Teams that shoot a below average free throw percentage when compared with other teams in the field will not win the NCAA tournament. This is tried, true, tested, and unequivocal. The best example of this was Memphis in 2008. That year, Memphis shot 67.3% from the line. Going into that tournament this was not given enough press because Memphis looked really really good, had the best player in the country on its team (Derrick Rose), and was 38-1 going into the tournament.

I picked them to lose in the elite 8. I was wrong, but I had the right idea. Memphis made the title game, but once they got there they missed a TON of free throws and let Kansas back in the game. Eventually Mario Chalmers hit a 3 point shot that sunk the Tigers . . . which leads me to my next two tips;

2) Teams that play good defense beat teams with good offense. Sounds simple? It's not so simple when you aren't watching teams like George Mason on a regular basis (hint: George Mason plays really really good defense). You make your money in the second round. Anyone can flip a coin and pick 8 seeded Mason over 9 seeded Illinois (I use this kind of example because people often go for the smaller school in what appear to be "toss-up" matchups like the 8/9).

However, when you are going for the big knockout in the second round because you think Ohio State is the weakest number 1 seed (for whatever reason), wouldn't you rather know that the team you are picking actually has a shot to pull off something that has been done only 13 times in the past you'd rather be in position to pull this off by having a team that plays good defense, has a good coach, and shoots a high percentage from the line?

3) Never underestimate the effect a bad coach can have on a team's chances to make a deep tournament run. A lot of people think John Calipari and Bruce Pearl are good coaches. They aren't. What they are is good recruiters (for whatever rea$on that may be $$$).

In addition to the speculation that Cal and Pearl coach the best teams money can buy, both guys are willing to recruit anyone, even from jail (Bob Huggins at Cincy was another guy like this), if the player has athletic talent and helps them look good on paper. The problem with that strategy is you end up with guys who care about scoring (and not fundamentals like playing defense and shooting free throws).

Bottom line, some of the best recruiters aren't the best coaches. Good coaches are guys like Mark Few at Gonzaga, Tom Izzo at Michigan State (not this year), coach K, and Bo Ryan at Wisconsin. They may or may not have won a title, but all 4 are good coaches that have the ability to get the most out of their teams (and help you win your pool by accumulating points). Although those guys aren't the only good coaches, it's safest to pick teams with guys who are thought of as members of the "good motivators" fraternity;

4) Good guard play beats good frontcourt play in college basketball. This one is crucial when you are trying to predict a first-round upset. Why is this one so important? It's huge because a lot of big upsets happen when a trailing underdog mounts a furious comeback. How do big comebacks happen in college basketball? At the free-throw line and behind the three-point line. Thus, finding out who has the best guards could make you a lot of money in the first round.

There you have it. Do your homework, employ my methods, and you'll have a recipe for having a pretty fun next month rather than a fun first weekend of the tournament. Also remember that the end of the tournament is the beginning of baseball season.

See you next Thursday morning when I'll post my predictions for the first round. We'll see if this entire article gets blown up (the last time it failed was 2005). I remember so many good teams getting knocked out in the first round that year.

Best of luck not having 2011 be your 2005.

"Get Over It!"

UW v. Ohio St.

Big game this afternoon. I believe the only thing on the line is seeding in the NCAAs, but it would be nice to get ANOTHER win over the number one team. And to hear Sullinger make up some other kind of assault when they lose. Like the ref pinched his left nut or something. If Jordan Taylor does anything close to what he did on Thursday, you can start carving his name into the B12 Ten Player of the Year trophy. It will be criminal if he doesn't win it. PREDICTION: OSU 72, UW 62

DUCK FOOK

I don't like Duke. I don't like UNC. But I like UNC better than Duke by default, so I'm happy they beat Duke yesterday. Also, for some reason Duke is already penciled in for a number one seed even though I don't think they are that good. The don't look like a number one seed to me, but someone has to get it I guess. Whatever.

NEXT WEEK

Next week is going to start to get pretty sweet. Big conference tourneys start Thursday, which means that I will have something to put up on my computer at work. I think the Big East's started like two weeks ago because they actually have more teams than the NCAA tournament itself. I LOVE March Madness possibly more than anything.

TWITTER

I joined the 21st century and got a Twitter account. I have not, and don't really plan to actually send a Tweet. If I did, I would go the way of Bear and never blog ever again. I'm convinced. Twitter is actually kind of a nice way to stalk crazy people (Charlie Sheen), Athletes (pretty much only Packers so far), and media people. It saves time sort of incredibly (and not really at all) by allowing you to know whether your favorite writers/bloggers have put up a new article and putting them all in one place without going to multiple sites. I'm sort of hooked.

Arch Madness Anyone?

Well, between the piles of tax returns, my eyes spy something resembling March fucking Madness. Friday (Thursday for the really shitty teams) begins Creighton's quest to shock the world and rise up from mediocrity and steal a NCAA bid from some deserving team.

I gotta admit, I've been a poor CU fan this year. They just have not been very fun to watch. About midway through the Valley season, when they got their shit kicked in by Bradley (who at that point was something like 0-11 in the conference) I just stopped making it a point to watch and/or listen. Horrible, I know. At least I'm aware that they still play basketball there, unlike the Milwaukee Bucks who were contracted after their first round exit from the NBA playoff last year.

To be fair, in mid-major hoops, once the conference regular season title is out of reach, and/or you eliminated from at-large contention (which for CU was early November), the regular season doesn't mean a whole helluva lot other than seeding at Arch Madness. And Arch Madness means a lot.

I had the pleasure of attending Arch Madness in 2006. It was pretty fucking ridiculous. For those not acquainted, Arch Madness is the pet name (also known as "The Creighton Invitational") for the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. It gets "Arch" from the fact that it is in St. Louis every year.

Each year, thousands of Midwesterners and students from small basketball playing universities descend on St. Louis to get super-ass drunk, possibly fight amongst each other, and watch a bunch of good basketball. (Also to stare at toothless rednecks from Carbondale, Illinois). I haven't been to another conference tourney, so perhaps others are the same. I imagine the Big Ten tournament is fun. But the tournament means A LOT to teams in the Valley, because often, only the winner gets into the big dance, and frequently, the team that comes out of the Valley does some serious damage (see Northern Iowa last year).

Unfortunately for me, I haven't been able to get back to St. Louis since. And unless I get a new job that doesn't involve getting screamed at by dickhead old people about their taxes, I probably won't get back soon. Some day, Twinkie and I will relive the glory days when he could drink heavily without one of his internal organs exploding, and had a penis. Good times will be had by all. In the mean time, I will try my damnedest to follow CU as close as possible (they play at 2:30 on Friday, and I have a job), and root on the Jays.